The odds of creating a perfect March Madness bracket (if each game had 50/50 odds) is one in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808.
Despite these almost impossible odds, it’s still fun to compete in bracket pools and potentially win prizes doing so.
If you have never filled out a bracket before or simply need a new strategy in filling out your bracket, then this article is for you.
This is bracket making 101.
Picking your National Champion
The first step to creating your bracket is to pick your winner. The best strategy in picking your winner is to first slim down the lower seeds. Of the 39 total tournaments, 25 of the winners have been a #1 seed, five of them have been a #2 seed and four have been a #3 seed. So of those 12 teams, trust your gut and go with it!
If you are wanting to take more of a risk, just know this: There have only been five champions that have ever been seeded lower than a #3. If you really have a feeling about a team, just know that the odds are stacked against you.
Round of 64
With your champion already chosen, now it is time for the most difficult part of the entire bracket: The first round. When making your selections here, choosing the lower seed (For example, taking #1 over #16) is always the safest route, but not always the best route. There are a lot of upsets that happen every year that no one can predict.
In this section of your bracket, there are a lot of matchups that have roughly 50/50 odds. These matchups are the #8 vs. #9 matchups, the #7 vs. #10 matchups and the #6 vs. #11 matchups.
The lower the seed, the less likely an upset will happen, but there are still some cases in which they do. Though it isn’t as likely as some of the other matchups, choosing one #12 seed and one #13 can prove to be a success and set you apart from other brackets.
In the #1, #2, and #3 seeds first round matchups, there is very little chance that the lower seed will lose the first round. Choosing all of these teams to advance is smart because they rarely lose, but keep in mind: Anything can happen. Even a #1 seed can lose in the first round.
Round of 32
Onto your next round and matchups are becoming more and more difficult to choose from. The lower seeds of your tournament are still alive, but are in more danger than before.
The best strategy here, based on the statistics of previous tournaments, would be to choose one of your #1 seeds to lose in this matchup. The best way to make this decision is to look at matchups and see which of the #1 seeds are facing a larger public school. Though there is no data or statistics tied to this tactic, the bigger schools seem to have a higher chance of upset (North Carolina, Arkansas, Kansas, etc.)
Keep one thing in mind as well: In the past 10 tournaments, a #10+ seed has advanced to the next round 20 times, and there has been at least one per year, so here is where you can potentially predict the next big Cinderella team.
Remaining games
This is where chaos ensues. The rest of these matchups take zero skill, zero strategy and all luck. In the remaining portion of the bracket, you can have zero upsets, all upsets, or a mix of both — but this aspect is pure luck.
What Next?
On March 16, 2025, at 4 p.m. MST, March Madness brackets will be finalized and you will be able to create and predict your bracket. May the odds be in your favor!
