One of the most competitive college basketball conferences, the Mountain West Conference (MWC) kicked off season play earlier this month and will begin the bulk end of their schedule on Dec. 21.
Coming off of the 2023-2024 season, where the MWC contributed six of the 68 teams in the NCAA tournament (Tied with the Big10 for third, Big12 and SouthEastern Conference with eight each), all Mountain West teams are looking for their chance to make the big dance in March.
With non-conference play being mostly over, the sample size is large to predict each of the teams final records (before the conference tournament). Here are predictions for the Mountain West Conference this season:
Air Force Falcons:
Current Record (3-8)
Predicted Record (4-27)
Predicted NCAA Tournament Seed: N/A
The Falcons are the worst overall team in the conference, struggling in their non-conference games despite not playing any strong teams. Air Force’s lack of offensive talent kept them from winning games. The Falcons need a huge turnaround if they want to compete in the MWC.
Boise State Broncos:
Current Record (8-3)
Predicted Record (25-6)
Predicted NCAA Tournament Seed: #7
The Boise State Broncos have the most losses in NCAA Tournament history without a win and are looking to break this streak. Strengthening their team with the help of senior point guard Alvaro Cardenas and junior center Dylan Anderson, the Broncos fixed their two biggest concerns a year ago: size and playmaking.
Colorado State Rams:
Current Record (6-5)
Predicted Record (12-19)
Predicted NCAA Tournament Seed: N/A
Being a smaller team that frequently turns the ball over is not a recipe for success. The Rams struggled in their non-conference games and despite having a big win over Texas Christian University (TCU), the Rams have not played well against better opponents.
Fresno State Bulldogs:
Current Record (4-7)
Predicted Record (7-24)
Predicted NCAA Tournament Seed: N/A
Fresno State has statistically the worst offense in all of the Mountain West, posting an offensive rating of 94.2 on the season (the Mountain West average offensive rating is 110.15 so far on the season). Though their defense can make up for their lackluster offense, it won’t be enough in the MWC this season.
Nevada Wolf Pack:
Current Record (8-3)
Predicted Record (20-11)
Predicted NCAA Tournament Seed: #11
The Wolf Pack lost in round one of the 2024 NCAA Tournament to the University of Dayton, after an impressive 26-8 record. Led by Junior Forward Nick Davidson, the Wolf Pack will be a solid team in the MWC, thanks to their combination of size and three point range.
New Mexico Lobos:
Current Record (9-3)
Predicted Record (22-9)
Predicted NCAA Tournament Seed: #11
The Lobos 2024-25 season is a new team from last year, losing three of their top four scorers to graduation or the transfer portal. Donovan Dent, the only one of the four to stay in New Mexico, took huge strides, averaging 19 points per game in the 12 games of the season. Keep an eye out for the Lobos come March, as they may just make a run.
#23 San Diego State Aztecs:
Current Record (7-2)
Predicted Record (25-4)
Predicted NCAA Tournament Seed: #3
Coming off of a Sweet 16 appearance in 2024 and a National Championship appearance in 2023, the Aztecs have consistently been a Mountain West Conference powerhouse, and this year may be their best team yet. Led by their trio of guards Nick Boyd, Miles Byrd and BJ Davis, the Aztecs are the team to beat in the Mountain West and are favorites to win the conference title.
San Jose State Spartans:
Current Record (6-6)
Predicted Record (10-21)
Predicted NCAA Tournament Seed: N/A
Utah State transfer, senior guard Josh Uduje, has been on a tear the last seven of the Spartans last eight games, scoring more than 17 in each of those outings. Though his success hasn’t translated to wins, the Spartans have a star in the midst and can potentially cause some upsets in the Mountain West.
University of Nevada, Las Vegas Runnin’ Rebels (UNLV):
Current Record (5-5)
Predicted Record (23-8)
Predicted NCAA Tournament Seed: #9
Cursed with the second most difficult non-conference record, the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels are battle tested and built to win. Don’t let those five current losses fool you, the Rebels were within six points in three of those losses, all to three likely NCAA tournament teams (Northwestern, Dayton and Memphis). Sophomore guard Dedan Thomas Jr. will dismantle nearly all of the competition that they play.
Utah State Aggies:
Current Record (10-1)
Predicted Record (20-11)
Predicted NCAA Tournament Seed: #12
After starting the season off a ten game winning streak, the Aggies may run into trouble with the rest of their schedule. In their first 11 games, the Aggies only played one team from a power conference (University of Iowa) and kept the rest of their games too close for comfort. Six of the 11 games (including their loss to University of California San Diego) weren within ten points, raising questions of whether the Aggies 10-1 record is an accurate representation or not.
Wyoming Cowboys:
Current Record (6-5)
Predicted Record (12-19)
Predicted NCAA Tournament Seed: N/A
Wyoming had one bright spot in the season: Senior Junior College (JUCO) transfer Obi Agbim, who is averaging nearly 20 points per game during the season. Besides him, Wyoming has not been able to compete against any major conference team, losing their biggest non-conference games (Brigham Young University and Texas Tech University) by a combined 66 points.
The MWC is slowly becoming a basketball powerhouse, competing with big name teams year after year, and making runs in the NCAA Tournament consistently. Though the conference is getting reshaped in 2026, there are still two full basketball seasons left with the current programs, as a National Championship may just be the next and final accomplishment from the MWC.
