There is room for two in BCS : Boise State and TCU battle for a chance

Illustration by AUDREY SWIFT/THE ARBITER

The recent Bowl Championship Series standings have put the Broncos in a familiar position behind a team from the Mountain West Conference.

This seems to be an ever-forming trend for Boise State 7-0 (2-0 Western Athletic Conference) and a situation that has Bronco nation wondering if it will be left out of the BCS for a third time.

Everyone remembers last season. BSU finished the regular season undefeated at 12-0 with a quality win on the road against the Oregon Ducks. The Utah Utes were ranked slightly ahead of the Broncos, guaranteeing them a spot into the BCS. Forcing BSU to hold out hope for the second at-large bid to come their way.

When the BCS selection show came on Bronco fans held their breath in anticipation that they would be the second team. But the wish never came true. A 10-2 Ohio State was selected over the Broncos and BSU was left out of the money bowls. The BCS selection committee sent out a message loud and clear – they aren’t going to select two non-automatic qualifiers unless it’s absolutely necessary.

“Last year they could have picked us over Ohio State. We were right ahead of Ohio State and they could have taken us if they really wanted to,” Boise State assistant atheltic director Max Corbet said. “Obviously we couldn’t compete because of the Big 10, travel, the money. But we were in position to do it.”

At the beginning of the 2009 season the Broncos were sitting pretty. They had just defeated Oregon for the second straight year and were positioned perfectly in the polls to be this season’s BCS buster. Losses by Brigham Young and Utah eliminated them from the equation, but TCU continued to win.

TCU 7-0 (3-0 MWC) won earlier in the season over Clemson and Air Force, but their win last week over Brigham Young 38-7 favored them over BSU in the BCS computers – which accounts for a third of the BCS formula.

TCU catapulted to No. 6 and BSU’s worst nightmares became reality. The team fell from No. 4 to No. 7. The Broncos rank No. 5 ahead of the Horned Frogs in both the USA Today Coaches Poll and the Harris Poll – the human polls account for the other two thirds of the formula.

The odds of the BCS selection committee accepting two non-automatic qualifiers remains unlikely – as we witnessed last year – but the chances of it happening now might be higher because BSU and TCU rank so high.

“You’re looking at the Boise State-Ohio State scenario with TCU mixed in all over. They’re going to protect their people. Unless we we’re No. 4 and TCU was No. 5 or something,” Corbet said. “How can you not do that when they’re both ranked that high? Now you really look like you’re slapping them. But it definitely could happen.”

WAC commissioner Karl Benson has been through all of this before and knows the BCS system favors schools from automatic qualifying conferences (ACC, Big East, Big-10, Pac-10, SEC and Big-12). This year, though, he thinks the computers will fluctuate until the end of the season.

“The computer polls are pretty volatile. It wouldn’t surprise me to see that change as the teams continue to win. I’m not alarmed or necessarily surprised that there was movement in the computer polls,” Benson said.

For BSU to be selected automatically into a BCS bowl, they must finish as the highest non-automatic qualifier over TCU or hope one of the teams from the AQ conferences finishes the season lower than No. 16.

There’s no clear way to tell right now who will finish higher between TCU and BSU, and the odds of one of the AQ conferences not being able to produce a team higher than No. 16 is unlikely.

“The BCS is not a system that assigns every team. It just determines AQ’s and determines whom of the non-AQ’s can be made for selection by the bowls,” BCS administrator Bill Hancock said. “The possibility of a bowl selecting a second team from a Non-AQ conference is intriguing to me. Personally, it’s not fair for me to speculate on what a bowl might do.”

All BSU can do now is continue to win and hope TCU loses somewhere along the road. TCU’s schedule is favorable as they still have No. 16 Utah to play at home. BSU has no ranked teams remaining on their schedule, which makes TCU’s strength of schedule stronger – a major plus in the computers.

At this point, BSU’s best shot to overtake TCU relies heavily on what No. 10 Oregon 6-1 (4-0 Pac-10) does for the remainder of the season. Oregon plays at home this week against No. 5 USC. If the Ducks lose, BSU can more than likely kiss the BCS goodbye.

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2. From the Blue to You: Oregon vs. Boise State
3. A year brings big change: A look at Boise State, TCU
4. Broncos ranked No. 10 in both major polls
5. Boise State blows past Fresno… again